So, behind the (left side) lamp assembly there's water getting into the boot and running down the body and straight into the spare tyre well.
Interestingly enough, there's no water marks on the actual body inside, but I removed the trim panels from that side of the boot and chucked some water over the taillight and round the weather strip so it runs behind the light and it starts dripping through a black rubber gasket.
A previous owner obviously had the rear parking sensors fitted and whoever fitted them did a shit job, and just cut through the gasket to wire it up to the reverse light. Now I have no idea if they had water issues, or if the gasket has just shrunk or dried out enough to start letting water in, but that's the only place I can actually see it getting in.
See red line in the image to where the cut is and the reverse sensor wires pass through, and where the water is dripping from inside the boot.
Can I just fill the gasket from the outside with RTV?